The final stretch is here. We are into Week 16, fantasy championships are looming, and the NFC West is about to be decided on national television.
It starts tonight on Thursday Night Football with the game of the year.
TNF: Los Angeles Rams (11-3) vs. Seattle Seahawks (11-3)
Forget "fighting for a playoff spot." This is a battle for the throne.
The Stakes: The Rams currently hold the #1 Seed in the NFC and the division lead thanks to their Week 11 win over Seattle. But if the Seahawks win tonight at home, they flip the script, taking control of the NFC West and potentially the road to the Super Bowl.
The Matchup: The Rams' offense has been a machine, ranking 1st in the league in EPA/play. But Seattle’s defense, led by Mike Macdonald, ranks 2nd in EPA allowed and #1 against the run. Strength vs. Strength.
The Pick: It’s hard to bet against Matthew Stafford right now, but Lumen Field in December for the division title? That crowd will be a factor. I’m taking the Seahawks (+1.5) to win a gritty, defensive game and shake up the entire NFC playoff picture.
The Saturday Doubleheader
The NFL blessed us with two massive divisional rivalries this Saturday.
1. Eagles vs. Commanders (5:00 PM ET) The stakes couldn't be clearer for Philadelphia: Win (or a Cowboys loss) and they clinch the NFC East. The Commanders, meanwhile, have already been eliminated from playoff contention. With Marcus Mariota slated to be under center for Washington, I expect the Eagles' pass rush to feast.
Pick: Eagles.
2. Packers vs. Bears (8:20 PM ET) The battle for the North. The Bears (10-4) are looking to prove they belong in the Super Bowl conversation, while the Packers (9-4-1) are reeling slightly after that loss to Denver. A cold, windy night at Soldier Field usually favors the defenses. I expect a grind-it-out game in the trenches.
Pick: Under 47.5 Points.
Fantasy Watch
For those of you in your Fantasy Semifinals:
Start: D'Andre Swift (CHI) — With the wind swirling at Soldier Field and a young QB facing a tough secondary, the Bears' game plan will likely be conservative. Expect Swift to shoulder a massive workload (20+ touches) as they try to hide the passing game.
Sit: Caleb Williams (CHI) — I love the leap he's taken in Year 2, but Lambeau and Soldier Field games in late December are brutal for passing stats. The wind and the Packers' secondary make him a risky play this week; expect the Bears to lean on the run.
Buckle up. The road to the Super Bowl goes through Seattle tonight.