The 12-team playoff is back for an encore.
After a chaotic debut last season, the format returns tonight, and the bracket has given us everything we could ask for: Blue Bloods, huge stakes, and potential revenge games. But while Vegas is expecting the favorites to roll, I’m looking at the slate and seeing a weekend defined by one word: Upsets.
Here is my breakdown of the First Round and why I think the road teams are about to wreck some brackets.
Tonight:
#9 Alabama @ #8 Oklahoma
Kickoff: 8:00 PM ET | TV: ABC/ESPN
We start with a heavyweight fight in Norman—and a massive rematch.
The Matchup: These two teams have nearly identical resumes. Both navigated the SEC gauntlet to finish with 10 wins, and they faced off just a few weeks ago in Tuscaloosa, where the Sooners pulled off a gritty 23-21 victory.
The Narrative: Oklahoma is hot. After that mid-season stumble against Ole Miss, they rallied to win four straight, including the regular season finale over LSU. Alabama, on the other hand, has to pick itself up after getting bruised by Georgia in the SEC Championship game.
The Prediction: It’s tough to beat a Kalen DeBoer offense twice in one season. But Oklahoma has the psychological edge and the home crowd. I think the Sooners' pass rush causes just enough disruption to stall the Tide's revenge tour.
The Pick: Oklahoma wins the rematch in a thriller.
Saturday Slate:
#10 Miami @ #7 Texas A&M
Kickoff: 12:00 PM ET | TV: ABC
This has "Instant Classic" written all over it.
The Matchup: Forget the old narrative about SEC defenses stifling ACC offenses. This Texas A&M offense, led by Marcel Reed, has been putting up video game numbers all year. They can score with anyone.
The Reality: On paper, A&M looks like the better team. They are at home (Kyle Field is a nightmare), and their offense is clicking on all cylinders.
The Prediction: So why am I picking Miami? Because in a shootout, I trust the veteran quarterback. Carson Beck has played in these massive SEC environments before (from his Georgia days). I think he makes one more big throw than Reed in the fourth quarter.
The Pick: Miami wins a wild one, 38-35.
#11 Tulane @ #6 Ole Miss
Kickoff: 4:00 PM ET | TV: TNT
This is the juiciest narrative of the weekend: A rematch of the regular season drubbing where Ole Miss won 45-10.
The Matchup: Everyone expects a repeat of the blowout. But it’s incredibly hard to beat a good team twice, especially when the pressure is entirely on the home favorite. Ole Miss is already looking ahead to the quarterfinals; Tulane is looking for redemption.
The Prediction: Lane Kiffin's squad comes out flat, expecting a coronation. Tulane plays loose, empties the playbook, and catches the Rebels sleeping.
The Pick: Tulane pulls off the stunner.
#12 James Madison @ #5 Oregon
Kickoff: 7:30 PM ET | TV: TNT/Max
This is the one everyone will call me crazy for.
The Matchup: Vegas has Oregon as a 17-point favorite. The Ducks have Olympic speed and Autzen Stadium. JMU is just "happy to be here," right? Wrong.
The Prediction: Oregon is a finesse team. JMU is a chaotic, disruption-heavy defense that forces turnovers. If the Dukes can punch Oregon in the mouth early, the doubt will creep in. I’m calling for the "Appalachian State vs. Michigan" of the playoff era.
The Pick: James Madison shocks the world.