We've just about reached the halfway point of the 2025-26 NBA season, and the race for the MVP award has evolved into one of the deepest fields we have ever seen.
According to the latest data from Basketball Reference, while the computer models favor the heavyweights at the top, the Top 10 list is packed with incredible narratives. From Shai Gilgeous-Alexander defending his crown to the "Super Team" experiment in Houston, the league is in a fascinating place.
Here is a deep dive into the Top 10 candidates for the 2025-26 NBA MVP Award.
1. Nikola Jokić
Team Record: 25-12
The Stat Line: 29.6 PPG | 12.2 RPG | 11.0 APG
After watching Shai Gilgeous-Alexander take the award last year, Jokić has come back with a vengeance in his quest for a fourth MVP trophy. He is currently averaging a 30-point triple-double on 60% shooting, numbers that feel almost routine for him at this point but are historically absurd. The Nuggets are 25-12, comfortably in the mix for the West's top seed, and everything flows through the Serbian big man.
What separates Jokić this season is his efficiency relative to his volume. He isn't just facilitating; he is scoring nearly 30 points a night while still serving as the primary playmaker. The probability model gives him an overwhelming 82% chance to win, suggesting that unless the Nuggets collapse, the "Joker Era" is far from over.
2. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
Team Record: 31-7
The Stat Line: 31.9 PPG | 6.4 APG | 2.0 SPG
The defending MVP is not giving up the trophy easily. The Thunder are an absolute juggernaut at 31-7, holding the best record in the NBA by a mile. Shai is actually scoring more this year (31.9 PPG) than he did during his MVP campaign last season, while remaining one of the premier perimeter defenders in the sport with 2.0 steals per game.
Usually, the "Best Player on the Best Team" narrative is the ultimate tiebreaker in close races. If OKC continues this pace and wins 65+ games, voters might decide that Shai's two-way dominance warrants a back-to-back selection, regardless of what the advanced analytic models say about Jokić.
3. Cade Cunningham
Team Record: 28-9
The Stat Line: 26.7 PPG | 9.7 APG | 6.2 RPG
Read that team record again: 28-9. The Detroit Pistons are real, and Cade Cunningham is the reason why. He has finally made the leap to true superstardom, orchestrating the offense with the poise of a ten-year veteran. He is flirting with a double-double average while leading one of the greatest single-season turnarounds we have seen in the modern NBA.
While he faces an uphill battle to catch the two giants listed above him, Cade's arrival has completely shifted the power balance in the Eastern Conference. He is controlling the game at a pace that suits him, and his ability to close out tight games has been the difference for a young, hungry Detroit squad.
4. Luka Dončić
Team Record: 23-12
The Stat Line: 33.7 PPG | 8.8 APG | 8.0 RPG
Now fully settled in his second season with the Lakers, Luka Dončić has found his rhythm in Hollywood. The adjustment period from the trade is long gone, and we are seeing peak Luka in Purple and Gold. He is leading the league in scoring at 33.7 PPG and has the Lakers back in true contender status at 23-12, proving the blockbuster move was worth the price.
The usage rate is sky-high, but so is the production. Luka has embraced the spotlight of being the face of the franchise, carrying the offensive load on a nightly basis. If the Lakers can go on a run in the second half of the season and steal a top seed, Luka's raw numbers are impressive enough to force him back into the top-tier conversation.
5. Tyrese Maxey
Team Record: 20-15
The Stat Line: 30.7 PPG | 7.1 APG | 4.6 RPG
With Joel Embiid navigating health management, this has become Tyrese Maxey's team. The speedster has taken another massive leap, joining the elite 30 PPG club and keeping Philadelphia firmly in the playoff picture with a 20-15 record. He has evolved from a secondary scorer into a legitimate primary option who can dismantle defenses from anywhere on the floor.
Maxey's motor never stops, and his efficiency remains high despite the massive increase in defensive attention he receives every night. While the 76ers aren't dominating the standings, the fact that they are five games over .500 is a testament to Maxey's ability to put the franchise on his back and carry the load.
6. Alperen Şengün
Team Record: 22-12
The Stat Line: 21.8 PPG | 9.0 RPG | 6.5 APG
Often called "Baby Jokić," Alperen Şengün is carving out his own legacy in Houston. He is the hub of a fascinating Rockets offense that features plenty of movement and passing. His ability to operate from the high post has unlocked the game for his teammates, and his chemistry with the newly acquired stars has been seamless.
The Rockets sitting at 22-12 is proof that the system works. Şengün might not have the raw scoring volume of a Luka or Shai, but his impact on winning is undeniable. He is the engine that makes the Houston machine run, and at such a young age, he is only scratching the surface of his prime.
7. Jamal Murray
Team Record: 25-12
The Stat Line: 25.3 PPG | 7.5 APG | 4.7 RPG
It is rare to see two teammates in the Top 10, but that is how good Denver has been. Jamal Murray is playing the best regular-season basketball of his career, averaging over 25 points a game. He has shaken the label of being just a "playoff performer" and is delivering consistent excellence night in and night out.
Murray's two-man game with Jokić remains the most unguardable action in the NBA. While Jokić gets the MVP glory, Murray's shot-making in crunch time is often what seals the wins. His presence on this list is a reminder that Denver isn't a one-man show; they are a two-headed monster.
8. Kevin Durant
Team Record: 22-12
The Stat Line: 26.1 PPG | 5.1 RPG | 52% FG
Kevin Durant in a Rockets jersey still takes some getting used to, but the results are undeniable. At age 37, he is still one of the most efficient scorers the game has ever seen. He has seamlessly slotted into the Houston offense, providing the lethal perimeter scoring that complements Şengün's interior playmaking perfectly.
Durant has accepted a slightly different role at this stage of his career, focusing on efficiency and spacing rather than dominating the ball for 40 minutes. It's working. The Rockets are a legitimate threat in the West, and KD's veteran presence is the stabilizing force that holds the "Super Team" experiment together.
9. Jalen Brunson
Team Record: 24-13
The Stat Line: 29.1 PPG | 6.3 APG | 48% FG
The King of New York continues to deliver. Jalen Brunson has the Knicks sitting pretty at 24-13, and he is doing it with his signature grit and footwork. He is averaging nearly 30 points a game, carrying the offensive burden for a team that grinds opponents down on the other end.
Brunson's value goes beyond the box score; he is the emotional heartbeat of the Knicks. In clutch situations, there are few players in the league you would trust more with the ball in their hands. He might be undersized, but his impact on the Eastern Conference standings is massive.
10. Chet Holmgren
Team Record: 31-7
The Stat Line: 18.2 PPG | 8.3 RPG | 2.8 BLK
Rounding out the Top 10 is the defensive anchor of the league's best team. Chet Holmgren doesn't need to score 30 points a game to impact winning; his presence at the rim changes everything for the Thunder defense. He is averaging nearly 3 blocks a game while shooting efficiently from the field.
The fact that OKC has two players in the Top 10 speaks volumes about their dominance this season. While Shai runs the offense, Chet ensures the defense remains elite. He is the perfect modern big man, and his development is a major reason why the Thunder are the favorites to come out of the West.
Perhaps the most shocking part of this list isn't who is on it, but who is missing. The NBA is so talented in 2026 that we have perennial All-Stars and potential first ballot Hall of Famers who didn't even crack the Top 10 probabilities.
The Celtics remain a juggernaut, yet their best player this season finds himself just outside the computer's Top 10. Brown has taken another step forward as a pure scorer, averaging nearly 30 points a night for the #3 seed in the East. His exclusion highlights just how crowded the field is; in almost any other year, the leading scorer for a 23-win team at the midway point is a lock for the Top 10.
Ant has continued his ascent as one of the faces of the NBA, leading the Timberwolves to a top-4 seed in the West. He is scoring at a career-high clip, but he is competing for votes in a guard-heavy field featuring Shai, Luka, and Cade. He's an All-NBA lock, but the model currently punishes him slightly for Minnesota's balanced offensive attack.
"Spida" continues to be one of the most explosive scorers in the East. With the Cavs clinging to the last playoff spot in the East, Mitchell's numbers are All-NBA worthy. However, in a year where 30 PPG seems to be the new benchmark for the Top 5, his production gets slightly overlooked despite his massive impact on winning tight games.
The greatest shooter of all time hasn't slowed down. Even in his late 30s, Steph is the only system the Warriors need. While the team record hovering around .500 keeps him out of the serious MVP conversation, his efficiency and gravity remain unmatched. He is still the player opposing coaches fear most in a single-game scenario.
We need to talk about what a win here would mean for Nikola Jokić. Winning a fourth MVP award is the demarcation line between "Great" and "Immortal."
Only five players in NBA history have won 4+ MVPs:
- Kareem Abdul-Jabbar (6)
- Michael Jordan (5)
- Bill Russell (5)
- LeBron James (4)
- Wilt Chamberlain (4)
If Jokić wins this year, he leaves the 3-time club (Bird, Magic, Moses Malone) and joins the Mount Rushmore of basketball history. It would also likely solidify his case as the greatest international player of all time.
My Verdict: The second half of the season is going to be a war. While Jokić has the statistical lead, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has the narrative momentum of the reigning champ on the best team. Keep an eye on Detroit, though—if the Pistons keep winning, Cade Cunningham could crash the party.
Who do you currently have as the MVP and do you see it playing out that way in the end? Let me know in the comments!